Rōki Sasaki will probably be the top pick in just about any FYPD or rookie fantasy baseball draft this offseason. The highly-touted pitcher will bring his elite velocity and advanced secondary pitches to the majors in 2025 after dominating Japanese baseball for the past four seasons.
The 23-year-old is three years younger than Yoshinobu Yamamoto and will debut around the same age as Shohei Ohtani in 2018. He tops the list of our recently-updated Top 100 MLB Rookie Rankings for 2025 for fantasy baseball.
Sasaki’s arsenal
Sasaki’s pitching arsenal is headlined by a fastball averaging 96.8 mph in 2024, with peaks of 99 mph. Its high spin rate and perceived “rising” effect generate frequent swings and misses and has reached as high as 102 in the past.
His splitter, regarded as one of the best in baseball, averaged 88–92 mph and produced a 56.5% whiff rate in 2024.
His slider, thrown at 83–86 mph, adds sharp horizontal break and keeps hitters off-balance, particularly right-handers.
Sasaki also mixes in a curveball, a 75–78 mph pitch, to further disrupt timing.
A mixed review in 2024
Sasaki faced some struggles in 2024. His fastball, while still dominant, lacked some of its earlier life and was slower compared to 2023. Sasaki also dealt with minor inconsistencies in his slider command. This led to a few uncharacteristic outings where he struggled to put away batters efficiently. Additionally, the Chiba Lotte Marines carefully managed his innings to avoid overuse.
Statistically, however, Sasaki remained one of the most impressive pitchers in NPB. He posted a 10.5 K/9, 0.92 WHIP and a groundball rate exceeding 50%. His walks allowed (2.6 BB/9) remained elite, and his CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiffs) was more than 35%, which is among the game’s best.
Next stop: An MLB team
In 2025, Sasaki steps into an MLB starting rotation as an ace-level starter, except for the ceiling on his innings. Projections for his rookie season include 150–160 innings, a 3.20–3.50 ERA, 180–200 strikeouts, and a WHIP around 1.10.
Several MLB teams have already been linked to Sasaki. It has been reported that he may choose between the Dodgers or Padres. The Yankees, Mets, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox and Mariners are also among the potential suitors.