As we take a look at the RotoProspects fantasy baseball rankings and projections, we can tell you that securing a reliable first baseman can be a make-or-break issue for your roster. The 2026 season’s group remains top-heavy with established superstars, but is quickly being re-energized by a wave of elite young talent ready to take over the corner.
Here at RotoProspects, we provide 2026 First Base Fantasy Baseball Rankings and Projections, broken into tiers. You can check out the entire list of the top 50 first basemen, broken into eight different tiers, by clicking here (subscription required).
Here’s a quick look at the first two tiers.
Tier 1: A new guy joins the usual top-dwellers
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): Entering his age-27 season, Vlad Jr. is the gold standard for high-floor, high-ceiling production, projected to lead the position with a massive .903 OPS. He remains one of the few elite power hitters who won’t hurt your batting average, making him a safe first-round anchor.
2. Nick Kurtz (ATH): The rookie sensation (pictured above) has sky-rocketed into Tier 1 thanks to a polished hit tool and a projected 37 home runs that rival the league’s best veterans. His elite 11.4% walk rate suggests he’ll be an OBP powerhouse from day one, justifying the hype for those in dynasty and redraft leagues alike.
3. Pete Alonso (BAL): Now wearing Baltimore orange, Alonso’s power remains as reliable as ever with a projected 37 homers and a position-leading 107 RBIs. While the average fluctuates, his move to a competitive Orioles lineup ensures he will have plenty of traffic on the bases to drive home.
| TIER 1 – PROJECTIONS | Age | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tor | 27 | 679 | 33 | 97 | 102 | 5 | .299 | .382 | .521 | .903 |
| 2. Nick Kurtz, Ath | 23 | 606 | 37 | 94 | 98 | 3 | .263 | .353 | .531 | .884 |
| 3. Pete Alonso, Bal | 31 | 673 | 37 | 89 | 107 | 2 | .257 | .336 | .500 | .836 |
Tier 2: Steady veterans lead this group
4. Bryce Harper (PHI): Harper continues to be an elite multi-category contributor, offering a rare blend of nearly 30 home runs and double-digit stolen base potential. His .363 projected OBP is among the best at the position, making him a cornerstone for any scoring format.
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD): The model of consistency, Freeman is projected for a position-high .276 average while continuing to rack up runs and RBIs in a loaded Dodgers offense. Even as he moves into his late 30s, his elite plate discipline and 10.3% walk rate keep his floor higher than almost anyone else in the league.
6. Matt Olson (ATL): Olson remains one of the premier “iron man” options at first base, projected for another 31-homer campaign with nearly 100 RBIs. While he may strike out more than others in this tier, his SLG and sheer volume of plate appearances make him a Tier 2 stalwart.
7. Rafael Devers (SF): Now in San Francisco, Devers brings his elite left-handed power to the Bay Area with a projection of 30 home runs and a healthy .814 OPS. His high walk rate (12.4%) makes him particularly valuable in OBP-heavy formats where his power can truly shine.
8. Josh Naylor (SEA): Naylor has evolved into a fascinating fantasy asset, pairing 20+ homer power with a surprising 18 projected stolen bases. This rare speed-from-first-base profile, combined with his run-producing role in Seattle, makes him a dynamic Tier 2 target.
9. Vinnie Pasquantino (KC): “Pasquatch” continues to be a favorite for those who value plate control, offering a high-contact approach that results in a projected .263 average. With 26 home runs and 91 RBIs on the horizon, he provides elite middle-of-the-order production without the swing-and-miss risk.
10. Yandy Diaz (TB): Diaz remains the king of the line-drive, boasting the highest projected batting average in the top two tiers at .283. While he won’t give you 30 homers, his elite .355 OBP and run-scoring ability make him the perfect high-floor stabilizer for your infield.
11. Michael Busch (CHC): Busch has fully realized his prospect pedigree in Chicago, projected for a 28-homer breakout with a solid 10.1% walk rate. He is a primary target for managers looking for Tier 2 power at a slightly lower draft day cost.
12. Tyler Soderstrom (ATH): Rounding out Tier 2, Soderstrom offers immense raw power that is starting to translate into consistent production. Projected for 25 home runs at just age 24, he represents the high-upside “youth movement” currently transforming the position.
| TIER 2 – PROJECTIONS | Age | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 4. Bryce Harper, Phi | 33 | 636 | 29 | 87 | 93 | 10 | .272 | .363 | .489 | .852 |
| 5. Freddie Freeman, LAD | 36 | 654 | 24 | 88 | 92 | 8 | .276 | .358 | .464 | .822 |
| 6. Matt Olson, Atl | 32 | 681 | 31 | 90 | 97 | 1 | .252 | .340 | .468 | .808 |
| 7. Rafael Devers, SF | 29 | 671 | 30 | 89 | 92 | 2 | .253 | .350 | .464 | .814 |
| 8. Josh Naylor, Sea | 29 | 615 | 22 | 73 | 84 | 18 | .260 | .326 | .428 | .754 |
| 9. Vinnie Pasquantino, KC | 28 | 604 | 26 | 77 | 91 | 1 | .263 | .329 | .458 | .787 |
| 10. Yandy Diaz, TB | 34 | 633 | 19 | 78 | 75 | 2 | .283 | .355 | .439 | .794 |
| 11. Michael Busch, ChC | 28 | 590 | 28 | 77 | 81 | 3 | .249 | .333 | .465 | .798 |
| 12. Tyler Soderstrom, Ath | 24 | 586 | 25 | 74 | 80 | 5 | .256 | .325 | .455 | .780 |
Get our Full Rankings and Projections for each position
Don’t head into your draft with just a list of names. Our full projections also include C, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, DH, SP (coming soon) and RP, all organized by tiers and available with a link to an easy-to-print PDF format.